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Bitcoin Reserve Speculation Falls as Trump’s Policy Stirs Uncertainty

Bitcoin reserve speculation fades amid uncertainty over Trump’s policy on crypto

3 min December 29, 2024

Highlights:

Polymarket data shows a sharp drop in Bitcoin reserve speculation under Trump’s leadership.

Trump’s mixed views on cryptocurrency fuel skepticism about his Bitcoin reserve plan.

Uncertainty remains as political and regulatory hurdles could delay any Bitcoin reserve initiative.

Bitcoin Reserve Speculation Falls as Trump’s Policy Stirs Uncertainty

Speculation about former President Donald Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days of office has dropped dramatically. A new Polymarket chart shows the probability of such a move at just 27%. This marks a steep 32% drop in recent days.

 

Volatility in the Numbers

 

 

Polymarket’s data shows huge shifts in market confidence. In early November, predictions hovered near 50%, fueled by hopes of a Bitcoin-friendly policy under Trump. High-profile endorsements and rising Bitcoin adoption contributed to this optimism. 

 

However, recent drops below 30% suggest that skepticism has taken over. Trump’s mixed stance on cryptocurrency likely plays a role in this change. He called Bitcoin a “scam” during his presidency and pushed for a strong U.S. dollar over digital alternatives. 

 

Despite this, some Republican figures, including pro-Bitcoin advocates, stirred speculation that Trump might reverse his position. This battle between old views and new possibilities creates a sense of unease in the market.

 

What Could Swing the Odds?

 

Many believe that even if Trump were to push for a Bitcoin reserve, the political and legislative hurdles would delay the plan beyond the first 100 days. A major Bitcoin endorsement from a Trump ally or clearer regulatory guidance could lift confidence. 

 

The Polymarket chart reflects growing doubt about a Bitcoin reserve. Bitcoin’s recent price movements also mirror this bearish outlook. On the other hand, more anti-crypto rhetoric or a focus on other issues could drive prices lower. 

 

For now, markets remain uncertain, and all eyes are on Trump’s next move. The coming months will decide whether Bitcoin becomes part of his agenda.

 

 

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